Friday, December 29, 2006

Me and the Experts at Stephen's Lighthouse

Experts on What's Ahead
(Bold Italics are my summaries of what the experts are saying. Apologies if I misunderstand
My Insightful Comments are in maroon)

Ned Sherman is chief executive and publisher of Digital Media Wire (
Prediction: Virtual Worlds (like Second Life)
Boy am I on the fence on this one. At the moment, it's, well, clunky. I agree that the potential is there. Remember pinging one another in the text-based era? Text-based lofts? Things like Second Life are a big step in evolution. It is certainly one to watch.

Rafat Ali is the editor of
Prediction: Mainstream media will pick up on social-networking phenomenons and use them as the basis for programming.
Right now mainstream media is using social-networking to promote its wares. It was only a matter of time before social-networking started to push mainstream media.

Which brings us to an existential-type question: How much of the storyline of the television show Lost is from original storylines made up by original writers and how much of it is a riff from a fan's comment in a social network setting? And how much did that change from the show's inception?

Kevin Werbach ( is an assistant professor of legal studies and business ethics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and the organizer of the Supernova technology conference (
Prediction: Peer-to-Peer television services - doing for tv what napster did for music

Chris Anderson is the editor in chief of Wired magazine
Prediction: Television is going to be hit hard by peer-to-peer video services and YouTube. Networked gaming will rival television for the time people spend using it.

Werbach and Anderson are neck and neck on this peer-to-peer thing. They could very well be right.

As far as I can tell from my cubical-mate and other young-uns, the networked gaming comment is probably already upon us. Which isn't such a bad deal. Television has been competing for the lucrative 18-24 yo male market for a long time. Let it go, TV! Now let's market to middle-aged middle-class regular Jills and Joes. (OK, my bias is showing.)

Hank Barry, a lawyer, was chief executive of Napster
Prediction: We're going way beyond personal computing. Why not carry your media with you everywhere and just plug in?

John Brockman is publisher and editor of Edge (
Prediction: User-generated content migrates to a WiFi environment. People will carry their "digital assets" with them.

Barry and Brockman are close on this one. I, even lowly I, think I can see it coming. Ipod and phones that do everything and usb drives have begun to meld. It's morph-city out there in digital land. Six months from now the idea of having the Ipod and phone and usb and everything else as separate devices may look like stone-age technology.

I love the term "digital assets." I can even see these assets as a type of currency. The one with the most gigabytes wins! People with more digital assets will be a better catch than those without. "Hey Baby, wanna see my digital assets?" could be the next really bad pickup line.

These are my opinions: The Gift That Keeps On Giving

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